Could alien civilizations predict the fate of our planet?


On Earth we’re very concerned about developing
a sustainable version of civilization, but the question we can ask if we step back and
take the 10,000 light year view is, how do we know if that’s even possible? Unless the university is very biased against
it, we are not the first civilization that has occurred over cosmic space and time. Whether
they’re intelligent broccoli or you know lizard people, if they have a technological
civilization which means they’re harvesting energy from their planet
then there’s going to be some feedback Civilization is a mechanism for
using energy and doing work and that’s a physics definition and from that we can
ask what is the feedback on the planet so you can develop models of this. You can develop physics, chemistry based models
with some very basic what we call population biology. One question is, okay, what did we get in
terms of the trajectories, what we would like to call the co-evolving trajectories of the
civilization and the planet? And there were four basic types. So the first class of trajectory that we found
is what we call the die-off. Imagine that if 9 of every 10 people you knew
died pretty quickly because of climate disasters, it’s not clear that a technological civilization
could really survive that. The second class was something that we call sustainability or also soft landing. The population rises. The planet starts to heat up or change because
of it but you’re able to find a nice stable equilibrium where the population comes to
a stable level. The planet doesn’t change anymore. The third possibility is what we call collapse
where basically the population rises very rapidly vastly overshoots the planet’s carrying
capacity. The planet changes so rapidly that the population
just comes down like a stone. You basically lose your entire population.
And then the fourth one was what we call collapse with resource change. So we even built into the model the possibility
that the population was smart enough to see like “Oh my God, bad things are happening.” Even though you’ve done the right thing,
you’ve kind of done it too late and you still end up crashing your civilization. So Easter Island is often used as this great
example or sort of metaphor for what’s happening on Earth now and what we know about
Easter Island was that people arrived there may be in 400 AD, built a vibrant civilization. We think they overshot the carrying capacity
of their island. They used all their resources and their numbers
came down you know pretty quickly and basically the civilization collapsed So our models actually come very much from
Easter Island. The good news was that for even though our
models were simple they still show that there were classes of history that led to nice
sustainable long-term civilizations. One thing that comes out of this is climate
change is not our fault. We didn’t trigger climate change on purpose
because we’re greedy. Now however we know and if we don’t do something
about it, it will be our fault. Across the cosmic space and time you’re
going to have winners who managed to see what was going on and figure out a path through
it and losers who just couldn’t get their act together and their civilizations fell
by the wayside. And so the question is which category do we
want to be in?

16 Comments

  1. Daniel Ferra said:

    "Other parts of the polar region off the northern coast of Greenland have seen temperatures 30C higher than normal for February".

    Just digest that number for a minute.

    What would you do if you woke up tomorrow and the temperature was 30C higher than normal ?

    I'll quote "President Niinistö in North Russia: ‘If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World’.

    what it's worth I'll continue to chronicle the unraveling of the biosphere but I don't expect it to hold together much longer.

    The sea ice in the Arctic is retreating from the melting temperatures from both the ocean and atmospheric anomalies.

    Soon the sun will rise in the Arctic and put the retreat on steroids and we are still 7 months away from the traditional low period.

    Will we see the 50 gigatonne methane release that has been predicted by Dr's Shakova and Smiletov from the University of Fairnbanks in Alaska. Only time will tell and time has run out." Kevin Hester

    "Human-Caused Climate Change is Causing the Most Powerful Hurricanes to Grow Stronger.

    That's why scientists are now mulling over adding a new category to define the world's most destructive storms: Category 6.

    Advanced by scientists meeting with Dr. Michael Mann in New Zealand and alluded to for the past few years in cutting edge blogs like Weather Underground,

    A 6th Category would be used to define storms with top sustained wind speeds that exceed 200 mph. Robert Scribbler

    A large area around the North Pole is forecast be up to 30°C or 54°F warmer than 1979-2000 on February 5, 2018." Sam Carana

    But it has been enhanced by more than a century of people externalizing the environmental costs of stupendous economic growth, loading the atmosphere now with

    42 percent more carbon dioxide,

    240 percent more methane,

    20 percent more nitrous oxide,

    42 percent more tropospheric ozone, etc.

    We have far too much gaseous carbon compounds now in our atmosphere, people.

    The carbon pollution is, by the way, making our oceans too acidic, an 3x more Mercury, threatening the base of the marine food chain. ” Jason E. Box

    "Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters:
    In 2017, there were 16 weather and climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each across the United States.
    These events included

    1 drought event,

    2 flooding events,

    1 freeze event,

    8 severe storm events,

    3 tropical cyclone events, and

    1 wildfire event.

    Overall, these events resulted in the deaths of 362 people and had significant economic effects on the areas impacted." NOOA

    Arctic sea ice could be gone by September 2018.' Sam Carana

    Each 1C. Temp Rise, Atmospheric Moisture increases 7%

    We have increased Global Temps 1.9C. and Climbing, since the 1700s

    Sandy, Katrina, Irma, Maria, an Harvey had 19% to 49% more Record Rain, Record Winds, Record Sea Suges,

    Our New Normal
    Record Rain, Record Snow, Record

    Highs Record Lows

    Record Winds, Record Waves,

    Record Fires, Record Floods,

    Record Hurricanes, Record

    Tsunamis,Record Typhoons,

    Record Earthquakes, Record Mud

    Slides, an Record Sea Surges.

    Christopher C. Burt, " the highest reliably recorded temperature on Earth is still at Death Valley, it is 54.0 °C (129.2 °F) recorded on 30 June 2013.

    53.9 °C (129.0 °F) was recorded another four times: 20 July 1960, 18 July 1998, 20 July 2005, and 7 July 2007.

    Aug 15, 2012 – "According to Weather Underground, the city of Needles, California, recently experienced what is believed to be the hottest rainfall on record 115°F."

    A 2015 heat wave that killed at least 3,500 in India and Pakistan saw wet-bulb temperatures around 122 degrees Fahrenheit (50 degrees Celsius).

    A similar wet-bulb temperature was reached during the 1995 Chicago heat wave." Steven Leahy

    A temperature of 94 degrees Fahrenheit (34.4 degrees Celsius) and 80% humidity produces a wet-bulb or “feels like” temperature of 129 degrees Fahrenheit (53.9 degrees Celsius) on the NOAA National Weather Service Heat Index.

    Methane which is Natural Gas + Carbon + Water Vapor = Global Warming

    Methane which is Natural Gas + Carbon + Water Vapor = Global Warming

    Methane holds 4 Times More Water Vapor than Carbon

    "The 20 year global warming potential of methane is 86. That is, over a 20 year period, it traps 86 times more heat per mass unit than carbon dioxide" IPPC

    "This means that injecting 1 kg of CH4 into the atmosphere today would have 86 times more atmospheric warming effect over the next 20 years than injecting 1 kg of CO2." ACS Chemistry for life.

    Then after 20 years it goes down to Methane GWP 34 for the next 100 years

    These figures are conservative

    Sam Carana "the 10 year holding more heat trapping mass and holding four times more water vapor than Carbon,

    Methane GWP 130 at 10 years,"

    This is why it is so hot in the Arctic 30C. – 40C. above Normal are Jet Stream is Lobed and it is melting in the Arctic NOW

    Astoundingly Truthful.

    That means 130 times more heat trapping mass and 4 times more water vapor than Carbon, is the Main Driver of Global Warming, Abrupt climate Change, Sea Level Rising over 220 feet, Faster Than They Say, Faster Than you think !

    We are filling the Full Effects of what Bush-Cheney an Obama emitted in 1908

    There is now a veil of Methane accumulating is the Stratosphere.

    Isostatic Rebounding of Greenlands Tectonic Plate, affecting (Gakkels Rift), causing Earthquakes in the Arctic, as well as Venting Mantle Methane

    Arctic News Sept. 15 2013

    “ As more ice melts away on Greenland and more water runs off in the Ocean and Sea, There is less weight on Greenlands Crust, the Crust Bouncing back from the lighter weight.

    The Crust bouncing back during Large Melts an effect called Isostatic Rebounding.

    This Rebounding can not Only Trigger Earthquakes and Landslides, it can also Suck Up the Magma from the Mantle.

    It Also Sucks Up Magma From The Mantle.

    It also Sucks Up Mantle Methane !

    Triggering Volcanic Eruptions and Venting Mantle Methane". Sam Carana

    No one has the numbers for Pingos Venting, nor Perma Frost Melting, or Methane Hydrates, Fracking, let alone Isostatic Reboundings Global Numbers, All This Venting and Emitting, of Methane + The 40 -50 Billion Tons of Carbon emitted Globally each year

    An ideal Carbon Atmosphere, would be at 300 parts per million

    1700s to 1800s ppm Carbon 260ppm – 280ppm

    1980s ppm carbon 350

    2015s ppm of Carbon 405

    2017 ppm of Carbon 409.35 and Rising

    "I will show you the rise in CO2 levels every 5 years from 1958 to Dec. 2017. I will also show the CO2 difference beside it from the previous reading. Each reading is taken in the March of the respective year.
    Year…………………….CO2 Levels……………Growth
    1958……………………315.71…………………..<4.0
    1963……………………319.86…………………..4.15
    1968……………………323.89…………………..4.03
    1973……………………330.30…………………..6.41
    1978……………………336.66…………………..6.36
    1983……………………343.33…………………..6.67
    1988……………………352.41…………………..9.08
    1993……………………358.47…………………..6.06
    1998……………………367.24…………………..8.77
    2003……………………376.46…………………..9.22
    2008……………………386.03…………………..9.57
    2013……………………397.43…………………..11.40
    2017……………………409.01…………………..12.42

    "The last entry is early since it is not yet March 2018.

    This shows the ever increasing growth of CO2 levels in our atmosphere.

    Some 2017 figures have shown 410ppm over the year, giving an increase of nearly 1ppm per month."

    Can society even exist in it's current form at 600ppm CO2 concentration ?

    I know the planet has been at that level before, but it took tens of thousands of years to get there and back again, not 250 years.

    Add in the CH4 levels, and you have an equivalence of ~580ppm already." Mark Bevis

    The Main Priority Now Should be to Decommission and Relocate to Above 3,000 Feet,

    450 Nuclear Reactors at Sea Level Now.

    1,200 Nuclear Fuel Rod Facilities at Sea Level Now.

    How long before 5 feet of Greenlands 20
    Feet of Sea Level Rise Fukushimatizes us ? 2020 ? 2022 ? ?

    "In the 1990s, the rising sea doubled its previous rate, reaching about an inch a decade, said Sweet. And then, over the past 10 years, tide gauges in Fernandina Beach, Mayport and Key West recorded an increase of about 0.9 centimeters per year, a little more than a third of an inch per year.” James Cox

    Sea Level Rise is accelerating, could just 5 feet of Greenlands 20 feet of Sea Level Rise, melt before 2000, or 2022

    Fukushimatizing US and the World ?

    Greenland Keeps the Northern Hemisphere in Ice and Snow Now.

    From the 1700s to 2000 – 30 percent of the Arctic Melted

    From 2000 to 2015 – 60 percent of the Arctic Melted

    90% of the Arctic is Gone, and what is left is barely any Ice or snow older than 5 years old, and it use to date back Thousands of years, Waxing and Waning in Glaciation.

    Each Day the acceleration of melt continues.

    With Record Winds, Record Droughts, Record Floods, Record Waves, Record Fires,

    Record Highs, Record Lows, Record Rain, Record Snow,

    Until Greenland is Half Melted, Then just Record RAIN, Record Highs, Record Lows, Record Floods, Record Mud Slides, Record Fires, Record Wet Bulb Index,Year after Fukushimas Year

    20 Feet of Sea Level Rise in Greenland

    200 feet of Sea Level Rise in Antarctica

    450 Nuclear Reactors at Sea Level

    1,200 nuclear Fuel rod Facilities at Sea Level

    16,000 Nuclear Warheads

    Already One Fukushima

    Already One Fukushima

    June 24, 2018
    Reply
  2. zornhed100 said:

    Climate change is simple, and nobody ever wants to talk about it. There are a few too many billion people on this planet.

    June 25, 2018
    Reply
  3. Yup Yuppers said:

    If your mathematical model is indeed based off of Rapa Nui (more commonly known as Easter Island), then I hope you took into account the fact that the indigenous people there DID NOY DESTROY THEIR CIVILISATION. Rats are the true culprit. Terry Hunt and Carl Lipo disproved all the theories that stated the people of Rapa Nui are to blame for their civilisation's collapse. I truly hope you did the proper research, otherwise this entire model is totally irrelevant. That isn't to say we don't need to start focusing on the environment more. We do. However, using bad data only leads to bad results. Best of luck.

    June 25, 2018
    Reply
  4. Douglas Nimtz said:

    They're here, and they've been here for a long, long time! This article is quite a joke. How long will it take scientists to recover from the shock of the awesome fact of the alien presence when the truth finally comes out?

    June 25, 2018
    Reply
  5. wailinburnin said:

    Ok, so where is the model that concludes we are not the first civilization in the entire Universe to reach this stat of consciousness (or the first consciousness to reach this state of civilization)? We could be the first, somewhere there is a “first” and as far as we understand it all the physics, all the chemistry is the same basic age in the Universe. Not that it makes any difference at all, but, we could be the first, and that would makes us that much more unique and our demise that much more tragic, so maybe we need to consider that our current systems and institutions are not meeting climate goals, our entire resource consumption is ridiculously high, so let’s wake up and do something about it.

    June 25, 2018
    Reply
  6. DD21044 said:

    Global climate change won't wipe out humanity. We will overshoot our resource base as billions buy cars and air conditioners. Our unstable global economy will crash, as it can not expand forever; and we will fight wars over our dwindling resources. Our global population will go from 8-11 Billion people to about a Billion in a few years. The resource base and global economy needed to rebuild our global civilization will be gone, and we will never be able to access the limitless resources of our solar system.

    June 26, 2018
    Reply
  7. Elena Tabachnick said:

    Right. I totally agree with your graphs (and conclusions) but please make clear the Ecology 101 textbook from which you got them. These are the typical progressions in development of any bio population as it fills its environment. Humans have only just filled theirs as it is the entire globe. We have also already entered the population growth rate decrease typical of the sigmoidal population growth curve as exponential growth flattens into sustainability of that population in that environment.

    June 27, 2018
    Reply
  8. Querantino 1984 said:

    You forgot that if aliens are smart enough to make interstellar travelling they are smart enough to stay as far away from earth as they could.
    Would you make visit to earth if you where super intelligent(if there are smarter species in the universe)? I guess not

    June 29, 2018
    Reply
  9. Ryan Sweeney said:

    At the very least, if we develop space technologies further, raw resources won't be a huge problem in the end.

    July 4, 2018
    Reply
  10. Ruben Santos said:

    this short presentation is awesome!! we must change our ways or we won't see our next frontier

    July 31, 2018
    Reply
  11. Bingle Bangle said:

    Why does it matter that much anyway? More mass extinction events will happen periodically every two or three million years and eventually in 5 billion years the sun will die and burn the earth to nothing.

    October 11, 2018
    Reply
  12. M C said:

    Yes, because advanced or similar exo-civilizations, from 10,000 lightyears away, would randomly pick our planet out and check for radio waves, right? Lol

    December 24, 2018
    Reply
  13. Marcus Gibson said:

    Look at the fundamental properties of carbon, making it simultaneously (a) building block of life, (b) fuel and (c) warming gas. It follows that where life exists, fossil fuels also exist, and so too inevitable global warming: https://youtu.be/16kOL0spKTA

    January 9, 2019
    Reply
  14. Full Meddl Jacket said:

    theres probably no one in our "close" proximity and the ones that are somewhere are migh taswell not as advanced as we'd like to see in movies n shit
    they might even be in their version of the early steam days

    March 25, 2019
    Reply
  15. Majesticface said:

    0:14 that is a possibility but only stemmed from science fiction and beliefs. In fact we may be the only advanced civilization I. The u inverse and maybe forever. Maybe life won’t develop on other worlds. Who knows, but I think as a human it’s best to say that there may be other life forms but currently we are the most advanced

    July 18, 2019
    Reply
  16. Electric Jellyfish said:

    Yes

    August 30, 2019
    Reply

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